employee
g. Rostova-na-Donu, Russian Federation
student
st.Staronizhesteblievskaya, Krasnodar, Russian Federation
student
Taganrog, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
UDK 50 Общие вопросы математических и естественных наук
UDK 33 Экономика. Экономические науки
GRNTI 06.52 Экономическое развитие и рост. Прогнозир-ние и планирование экономики. Экономич. циклы и кризисы
OKSO 01.04.02 Прикладная математика и информатика
OKSO 38.07.02 Экономическая бехопасность
BBK 20 Естественные науки в целом
BBK 65 Экономика. Экономические науки
TBK 60 Естественные науки в целом
TBK 77 Экономика. Бухгалтерский учет. Финансы
BISAC MAT000000 General
In this article econometric models of time series on export volumes of the Republic of Armenia on quarterly data in the period from 2015 to 2019 were obtained. Exponential smoothing model and multiplicative model were Constructed. And also the forecast of export volumes in value terms for the IV quarter of 2019 is made.
multiplicative model, export, Republic of Armenia, forecasting, trend equation
1. Tsvil M. M., Karapetyan, A. A., Forecasting with adaptive techniques, according to the foreign trade of the Southern Customs Directorate // Zh. Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of Russian Customs Academy/2016.
2. Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia. Official site. URL: https://www.armstat.am/ru
3. The official website of the Eurasian Economic Commission. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org
4. Eliseeva I.I. Econometrics: textbook. M.: Finance and Statistics, 2017.
5. Tsvil M. M. Econometrics: lecture notes on academic discipline. Rostov on / D: Russian customs Academy, Rostov branch, 2012.
6. Larkin E.V. Time series analysis and forecasting according to customs statistics: St. Petersburg: Troitsky Most, 2016.
7. Tsvil M. M. Econometric modeling of volumes of customs payments in the region of activity of the Rostov customs // Academic Bulletin of the Rostov branch of the Russian customs Academy. 2019. No. 1(34)
8. Tsvil M. M. Time series analysis and forecasting: proc. benefit. Rostov on / D: Russian customs Academy, Rostov branch, 2016.