student from 01.01.2017 until now
Rostov-na-Donu, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
student from 01.01.2017 until now
Rostov-na-Donu, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
UDK 33 Экономика. Экономические науки
GRNTI 83.29 Экономическая статистика
OKSO 01.04.01 Математика
BBK 6523 Планирование. Экономическое прогнозирование
BISAC BUS000000 General
The article builds a seasonal model of a time series based on quarterly data on the number of criminal cases initiated by the customs authorities of the Russian Federation for all quarters of 2016-2019 years and 1-3 quarters of 2020 year. Based on the constructed model, forecast values were made for the 4th quarter of 2020, as well as for the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2021.
Adaptive method, time series, forecasting, seasonality coefficient, average, modeling
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